S-N Editorial

Iowa Democrats took another one on the nose last week when it was announced South Carolina would likely leapfrog the Hawkeye State’s first-in-the-nation presidential nominating status. The move wasn’t unexpected, but it dealt a significant blow to Iowa’s national political relevance.

Democratic Party officials last Friday moved a step closer to making South Carolina the first nominating state of 2024, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire, Georgia and then Michigan. Even President Joe Biden has endorsed the change. He, like others in his party, want to give additional clout to states with more diverse populations. Apparently lily-white Iowa doesn’t meet demographic qualifications anymore.

Iowa Republicans still plan on retaining their No. 1 spot, but the goose seems to be cooked for Dems. After a debacle with a results-reporting app led to delayed results in 2020, many national figureheads called for the Democratic Party to move on from Iowa. Not only was the state too disproportionally white compared to the rest of the nation, they claimed party leaders couldn’t handle the big stage. The state has also shifted from reliably purple to ruby red over the past decade, which has led some to wonder why Democratic candidates are wasting their time, money and energy campaigning here.

The arguments have merit. Mostly built on myth and inflated media coverage, results of the Democratic caucuses haven’t exactly been a harbinger for the presidential winner. Only Barack Obama in 2008 went on to eventually win the White House after claiming victory in Iowa. Then-Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter actually finished in second place to “uncommitted” in 1976, and all other Democratic caucus winners either fell short of earning their party’s nomination or lost in the general election. Incumbent presidents are the only outliers.

To be fair, Republicans haven’t done much better. Only George W. Bush in 2000 went on to claim the presidency after winning Iowa. Like Democrats, all others to do so were incumbents. The GOP isn’t immune to criticism of its operational processes, either. Back in 2012, presidential candidate Mitt Romney was declared the winner of the Republican caucus by a mere eight votes. Sixteen days later, the Iowa GOP announced Rick Santorum had actually finished first by 34 votes, but even that was ambiguous due to lost and misallocated votes. Ultimately, party leaders officially declared Santorum victorious, but it was long after momentum from the win could have propelled the underdog candidate to greater upsets further down the line.

Two bad endings in eight years is not a good record. The blunders undermined the integrity of the caucuses, eroded voter trust and gave Iowa’s critics more fuel for the fire. The 2020 meltdown was simply the straw that broke the camel’s back for Democrats.

It’s a shame. The caucuses make Iowa the epicenter of national politics every four years and voter access to each presidential candidate is unmatched. That’s probably a thing of the past for Democrats now, but they unfortunately have no one to blame but themselves.

Republicans should hold on for dear life if they want to stay on top. Even barring another hiccup like the one in 2012, it’s not preposterous to think national GOP leadership is willing to put another state at the front of the line. Iowans have taken great pride in being first for several decades; however, it’s clear the hokey nature of candidates gobbling fried food at the state fair and holding town hall meetings in church basements has worn thin at the national level.